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Wiesbaden’s higher slot machine tax will stay in force after the Hessian Higher Administrative Court in Kassel upheld the city’s move to raise the rate from 5% to 7.5% from 1 January 2024. 

According to the court’s statement, the judges rejected challenges from gaming hall operators and said the city’s public decision was legally sound. 

The ruling preserved a revenue measure the city says was designed to bring in up to €1 million according to the court’s own summary.

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The analysts estimated that an operator capturing a one-cent spread and managing its exposure successfully could generate net economics of approximately $1.69 on a $100 trade. Returns are not guaranteed: adverse price movements and unresolved inventory can offset or exceed income from spreads, rebates and liquidity incentives.

The operational infrastructure available to these new firms, however, remains underdeveloped. Gonzalez contrasts prediction markets with equities, where trading businesses can use prime brokers, clearinghouses and standardised systems such as FIX.

“When it comes to prediction markets, none of that exists,” he said. “Everyone that’s building in the prediction market space mostly starts from ground zero.”

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The CFTC’s move gives the agency a chance to pursue parts of a crypto market framework under its existing authority, rather than waiting for Congress to resolve the broader legislative debate. 

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig signaled that possibility back in August. The agency was considering how its existing powers could be used to create a dedicated market structure for digital assets that are standard, he said. 

A new type of Designated Contract Market (DCM) dedicated to crypto trading is among the elements being looked at. Selig’s approach would enable existing and perhaps new crypto exchanges to gain CFTC recognition and offer leveraged or margined digital asset products under rules tailored for the sector.