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While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.

Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.

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They have also been advised to thoroughly review their Know Your Customer, fraud detection protocols and contractual terms to reflect the guide’s recommendations. 

They must also evaluate their current technical safeguards to ensure alignment with regulator expectations and certification standards.

Safeguarding has reappeared as a focal point for the regulator. In July of this year, ANJ imposed a €500,000 ($572,797) fine on an unnamed online betting operator, referred to as Company X, for not adequately identifying and supporting customers exhibiting signs of problematic gambling. 

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Of the KSA’s update, Fuchs said: “If you [as an operator] have a clean sheet, there are some hoops, but for various modules you can just send a declaration which states that you’re compliant.”

He emphasised the new system would make burdens less demanding than before, but the new ‘exit plan’ requirement and sharper duty‑of‑care definitions do bring some added complexity.

The KSA said that applicants were previously required to detail corrective actions taken to address previous breaches and outline measures to prevent future violations.