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Hopefully it will be a better one. It’s up to each and every one of us to make it better, once all this mess is cleared out for good, along with all the considerable collateral damage.
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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
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While it’s tempting to use AI to help you write a submit, we please ask that you avoid doing so, as once again, the more personal an entry is, the better we can judge it across our key criteria.
The submission form will close on 1 October, at which time nominations will be put to our esteemed panel of judges for final review.
More information on judges, submissions and deadlines can be found here. You can also access interviews with last year’s winners and the final list for 2025, as well as for every year prior.
